Housing Demand and MLS Sales

Provincial Growth

Central Okanagan MLS Statistics

Provincial Growth

Population Growth in B.C. is Still Among the Highest of All Provinces in Canada...

British Columbia continues to be one of the fastest growing provinces in Canada recording a population growth rate of 1.3 %, or 50,600 persons between July 1, 1997 and July 1, 1998. This was virtually the same as Ontario (just over 1.3 %) and higher than the national population growth rate of just under 1.0%. Only Alberta (2.7%) had a significantly higher growth rate. The British Columbia population has grown despite a slowdown in the resource sectors and a substantial drop in the level of interprovincial migration to the province.

However, the rate of population growth has declined across the province. Particularly in some of the more resource-dependent areas. The largest decline of any region was recorded in the Skeena-Queen Charlotte Regional District, where population fell by 1.5 %. Many other municipalities across the province that experienced a population decline have faced layoffs in either the mining or the forestry sector in the last year.

The booming oil and gas sector in the Northeast has bought employment and population growth to that area. Fort St. John and Taylor are among the fastest growing municipalities in the province. The population of Whistler continues to expand and nearby Pemberton is benefiting from the spin-off effects. Whistler is once again the fastest growing of the larger municipalities (population over 5,000) and has almost doubled in size since 1991.

With the incorporation of Wells in 1998, there are now 152 incorporated municipalities within British Columbia. Of these, just under two thirds experienced an increase in population over the last year. The population of Greater Vancouver continues to grow faster than the provincial rate of growth, although it has shown signs of slowing. Growth is still strong in many of the bedroom communities such as Richmond, Surrey, New Westminster, Coquitlam, Port Moody and Langley.

Within the Central Okanagan, population growth is concentrated in Kelowna, with considerable slower growth to the north and south.

Retirement in British Columbia

In 1994, 11% of Canada's population aged 15 and over was retired, which represented 14% of men and 8% of women. However, the profile of retired people in B.C. is somewhat different from that in the rest of Canada. At 13%, B.C.'s proportion of the population that was retired in 1994 was higher than in other parts of the country. The average retirement age for men in B.C was 60.9 years, half a year earlier than for the average Canadian Male. Women in both B.C and the country as a whole retired at 58.5 years on average.

The image that Canadians have is that B.C. is the preferred retirement destination within Canada and this is reflected in the fact that only a quarter of the retired people in B.C. were born in the province. In Ontario and the Prairie provinces slightly over half of the retirees were born in their current province of residence, while most retired people (88%) were living in their province of birth.

Three Quarters of Retired People in B.C were Born Elsewhere

Place of Birth

The education levels of B.C. retirees are generally higher with 19% of men having an university degree as compared to 14% for Canada as a whole; 21% of retired men and 27% of retired women in B.C. have a college or trade school education compared to 15% of Canadian men and 18% of Canadian women. The higher education levels are an indication that the financial position of B.C. retirees may be more favourable than for Canada as a whole.

The large proportion of interprovincial and international migrants in the B.C. retired population is a contributing factor to the differences in educational levels and other characteristics, as people with more education are more likely to migrate.

Migration and Housing Demand

Other demographic factors which influence housing demand include the age structure of the population and the makeup of households and families. For example, increases in the number of seperations and divorces could result in an increase in the formation of new households.

There are a variety of economic factors which affect housing demand. When housing supply cannot keep pace with the demand for housing, the market compensates with price increases. From 1985 to 1994, the average real selling price of housing in B.C. rose steadily, apart from leveling off in 1990 and 1991. However, in 1995 there was a drop of 5.5% in housing prices, as the demand for housing eased, and the vacant housing stock grew by 11%.

The above sections on migration and retirement illustrates the strong relationship between population movements and housing prices. Since 1979 movements in housing prices have followed very closely the movements in net migration to the province. The 21% decline in net interprovincial and international migration in 1995 had a major impact on the demand for housing and housing prices fell back to their 1993 levels. Although net migration increased by 5.3% in 1996 as a result of strong immigration to the province, real housing prices continued to decline. The large supply of vacant units in the previous year helped restrain housing prices and in 1996 the number of vacant units fell by 7.3%. With slower migration in 1997 as a result of lower net migration from other provinces, real housing prices have continued to decrease.

The following section provides data on house sales through each provincial area's Multiple Listing Service (MLS). It indicates that the above arguement on the positive correlation between population movements and house prices has been realized in the province of British Columbia over the past decade.

British Columbia MLS Statistics

Central Okanagan MLS Statistics - 1999

MLS Update - April 1999

MLS Update - March 1999

MLS Update - February 1999

MLS Update - January 1999

* the average residential house price was inflated this month due to a very large number of high priced sales.

MLS Residential Sales - January 1999